Three Reasons why Pelicans will prevail in Orlando
The NBA’s Orlando restart is weeks away and with that talks of MVP, biggest sleepers, and title odds are upon as well.
While everyone is debating over the specifics of bubble safety and protocols and what it will entail, I’ve chosen to do a dive into the bottom of the Western Conference playoff picture, which is essentially a six-team race to capture the final eight seed. The Grizzlies currently hold that position, with the Trailblazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, and Suns close behind. So close that it is only a six-game difference between the Grizzlies and last place Suns. With only eight games to play, however, teams will have to put forth their best outing of the season to secure the final playoff spot in the West and I believe the team that will do that is the Pelicans.
The Pelicans currently sit at ninth in the Western standings, 3.5 games back from the final spot. If they stay within four-games of the Grizzlies by the end of the season, they will qualify for the new play-in tournament that the NBA is implementing in the bubble. Before the season came to a halt the Pelicans were up and down, trying to figure out their groove with a returning Zion Williams who missed a majority of the season recovering from a torn meniscus from the preseason. After notching some games under his belt, Zion and the Pelicans started to show improvement, picking up wins behind first-time All-Star Brandon Ingram and better play offensively from Lonzo Ball down the stretch. But just like them, other teams started to improve too, like the Blazers and Kings who had rough starts to the season but began picking up wins late to make the playoff race more interesting. Don’t fear though Pelican fans as their season is far from over as they hold three advantages that will help them make that final eighth spot:
Health
With all this time off from the suspension of the season due to COVID, players that have been battling injuries all season have gotten the chance to heal and get back to 100% physically. While all teams hold this advantage if you will, no team could’ve used it better than the Pelicans. With this time off they were able to get a key player back in J.J. Reddick who will be important with his shooting prowess in this soft reset of the season. Other players like Ball, Ingram, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Darius Miller have all been injured in the final stretch of the season will presumedly be back healthy and ready to go as well. But the sole person that benefitted most from this time off is young star Zion who has been a force since he was cleared for action.
With his time off, the Pelicans star has been able to get into better physique reports say. In a picture that the Pelicans put out Thursday, Zion looks more toned and slimmer since he started his rookie season. In a way, this is the best he has looked since arguably his time at Duke as he’s been hammered with injuries during his short collegiate and NBA career. Zion being at a 100% for this mini stretch run will prove pivotal as his jumping and leaping prowess will be a factor in this strange format where teams have to regain chemistry and cohesion they found mid-season. That means you will see a lot of Zion soaring for rebounds, him and Lonzo getting out in transition and putting on a show as they did in the Summer League. Offensive rebounding will be key too as that is something Zion already thrives at and with him being healthy and in better shape, you can surely expect a bigger impact than you have already been seeing.
Schedule
Probably the biggest advantage the Pels have going for them is their strength of schedule. Out of the six-team race, they have the easiest schedule remaining playing only two teams over .500 in the Jazz and Clippers and that is their first two games followed by easier competition to close out their final games. And their hardest game in the Clippers will probably be without the services of Kawhi Leonard who will most likely rest in that game from the meeting the previous night against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have arguably the hardest schedule remaining to have to go against the top-three teams in the Eastern Conference along with some of the other teams fighting for that last spot in the West. And to be fair this was the case before the season was suspended, not a ploy by Silver to get Zion as much airtime as possible. The Blazers, perhaps the Pels's biggest competition, have a pretty rough schedule too with six teams over .500 in their way.
Full NBA schedule for every team in the restart can be found here: https://www.nba.com/article/2020/06/26/nba-comeback-schedule-2019-20-seeding-games
Style of Play
The Pelicans hold a clear advantage to me in this category which will be key inside the Orlando bubble. With the team being one of the youngest in the league, their style has become a run and gun offense with them flying up and down the court. This incredible pace is led by Ball who gets the ball out early to his teammates in transition. This is important because what will show in this restart of the league is that some teams will struggle offensively and defensively after being away so long. You look at the Lakers for instance who seemed to be peaking at the time before the suspension, finally gelling as a team and then have to get that interrupted. That groove took them all season to find and some teams, especially the bad ones, will find that hard to recapture without any real games being played until the resumption of the season.
This is an important thing to note because as teams begin playing these eight games there will be bad shooting nights and rust that has to get taken into effect. The Pelicans are poised to overcome this with their fast style of play that can take advantage of poor defense in transition. They don’t depend on their shooting nearly as much as the other teams like Portland and the Kings but rather getting to the basket and dominating the offensive boards behind Zion who will already be more explosive than what teams can expect with this time off. I expect to see this team be a force on both sides on the ball, using their youth to their advantage.
So these are my reason why I believe the Pelicans will prevail in Orlando and capture that final spot. It’s important to add that out of the six teams competing for that final spot they are one of the healthier teams out of the bunch getting back key players whereas teams like Portland might still be without players like Jusuf Nurkić and Zach Colllis who have both been injured all season, not to mention players opting out and not playing in the restart.
If the basketball Gods can hear me on this one, we will be in store for a first-round series between the King and the future of the league.
