NBA Finals Bucks-Suns: Key Factors, and Last Minute Predictions
Saying this NBA season was unlike any other would-be underselling it.
Photo per NBA.com
There were challenges like starting the season early, a 71-day turnaround from the end of the last Finals game between the Lakers and the Heat compared to the 20-week rest they would normally receive. Then there was a hectic schedule that consisted of more back-to-back games in the same city a la baseball style. And who can forget the months some teams played before they even allowed fans in their building. All many factors that contributed to this season have pitted two unlikely teams against each other in this year's Finals: the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks.
Tuesday night, the NBA Finals will begin with the Suns hosting the Bucks. There are a ton of stakes at play in this matchup that will take center stage along with the play of the players. Will Chris Paul get the championship ring that has eluded his 16-year career? His accolades alone have made him a legendary point guard in the NBA’s history, but some would say what’s holding him back from the Top Five in the game is a championship ring. His playoff losses haven’t all been his fault as he has had injuries in runs where he had decent chances. But now he has his best chance at the twilight of his career and he has to close this deal if he wants that upper echelon recognition.
On the other side of the tape, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the chance to begin his reign in the NBA with a championship this early in his career. His accolades against any player in NBA history is comparable to the top 50 players all-time as you can see here:
Claiming a ring in a league where LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard are still playing at a high level is impressive despite how this season turned out. A feat that will probably only be remembered for winning anyway. But of course, his injury is still at play and looms large in the Bucks' future. Without Giannis, the Bucks still have a great team with Khris Middleton as your Batman, as Perk would say. If they can’t cash in on this Finals berth can you ever win with the pair of the Bucks’ Allstars?
Ahead of this matchup, I looked at what I believe to be the key factors for the two teams.
Keys To The Game:
Giannis’ Health
Photo of Giannis Antetokounmpo after hyperextending knee in Game 4
No other factor in this series is more important than Giannis’ heath. He is still recovering from that hyperextended knee he suffered in Game 4 against the Atlanta Hawks, and his status has been a mystery. With him out, the Suns get the nod as the favorites out of Vegas entering the series. But don’t sleep on the Bucks without the former MVP as this team, anchored by Middleton and Jrue Holiday, are more than capable of holding down the fort.
Expectations are for Giannis to make his Finals debut at some point this series but he would be hampered. In the two games this season he has played against the Suns, he has averaged 40 points on 60% shooting from the field and hitting more than 80% on his free throws. In other words, he was dominant, getting anything he wanted against the smaller Suns and Deandre Ayton. If he was playing at full strength, the Bucks would be the obvious favorites as they wouldn’t have anyone to stop him. His potentially missing some time would work favorably for the Suns.
Backcourt Battle
With the balance of power in Giannis out, this will be a battle of the star backcourts. For the Suns, you have Paul and Booker who have been killing in the midrange throughout the playoffs. Booker is the remaining highest scoring player in the playoffs, averaging 27 points per game in his first run at a championship. And it just seems like whenever the moment calls for the Point God to close he shows up with a big performance like Game 6 against the Clippers when he dropped 31 of his 41 points in the second half of the game sending them home.
All that praise doesn’t mean the Bucks don’t have an elite backcourt of their own, Middleton and Holiday are one of the better ones in the league at both ends. Holiday is a First-Team All-NBA defender, and though he has struggled shooting these playoffs he has come up big in spots just like Paul has. Middleton has superstar talent but struggles to give it to you on the court consistently. When he’s able to tap into though he’s close to unstoppable on the court. Can rain threes on you in barrages or size you up for a middy, he can do it all. It’s hard to pencil in which team has the advantage here.
Bigs
Coaching should probably be the last factor here but it’s clear to me who wins that battle as coach Bud has his meltdowns in playoffs before. That said, Ayton who has been spectacular this playoffs will be seeing easily his greatest defensive matchup these playoffs in Brook Lopez. I believe whichever big can dominant in the game can turn the tides for their respective team. Lopez showed in Game 5 in the ECF that he can go back to them Brooklyn Brook days with a breakout 33 point performance, scoring 26 in the paint. If he just stands on the perimeter jacking three-pointers, Ayton and the Suns will live with that as the Bucks have been streaky from deep all postseason.
Photo of Deaandre Ayton
Ayton's playoff success has come from him simply playing his role. He runs hard in transition getting to easy buckets at the cup. He also has a jumper in the post he uses from time to time that catches defenders off guard. Lopez is a great counter for that because of his craftiness with his movement and being able to use his length effectively. The big problem for the Suns comes if Ayton gets in foul trouble because the next closest thing to a big for them is Super Dario. Yet, this all stems from how well Lopez plays and is being utilized.
Prediction:
NBA history will be made on either side of the outcome. My wish and I'm sure fellow basketball fans hope for is a competitive series that goes the distance. And more importantly, no one else gets injured. With all that said, my pick for this NBA Finals will be Bucks in 7.
Though I believe that the Suns have the better backcourt, after watching the Clippers series and seeing how they were able to guard Booker and Paul, I think the Bucks can do an even better job with Tucker and Holiday. And if they’re struggling it makes it that more harder on the role players like Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Payne who will already have a time getting to the rim as the Bucks protect the rim well. I am accounting for the bad Middleton games but I believe Holiday on the big stage will make up for his shortcomings. And to top it off, at some point I expect Giannis to return and any version of himself is good for the Bucks.
A long hard-fought series will see Giannis winning his first championship and being immortalized as one of the best players in this game’s history, possibly even entering G.O.A.T convo.
Cheers to the Finals!
