Tua Tagovailoa: NFL Draft Mystery

Who would’ve been a lock for the No. 1 pick a year ago, Tua Tagovailoa has become the mystery in tonight’s draft.

From his arrival in the CFP Championship game where he threw the game-winning touchdown in OT, he had NFL star written all over him. He had teams as early as his sophomore season clamoring to draft him. But significant injuries throughout his college tenure has lowered his stock from what would’ve been the top overall pick to debating him or Oregon’s Justin Herbert as the second QB off the board.

What are these injuries? It goes from a broken finger to a sprained right knee early that season after winning the championship. That same season he sufferered a quad injury against Mississippi State, followed by the high-right ankle sprain that was the story of the 2018 CFP. The following season he suffered another high ankle sprain in the opposite ankle which led to the gruesome hip injury that took him out for the rest of the 2019 season.

All these injuries factors into one of the biggest gambles in recent year’s draft, picking Tua high or drafting another QB. Tua has the record for the highest QBR in a season in college football and is often regarded as the next Drew Brees. His accuracy as a passer has been cited as NFL level and he is a spirited competitor. However you feel about him being the best prospect or not, he will be the biggest domino tonight as teams watch and see if he falls down the draft board.

But where is the best landing spot for Tua?

The Miami Dolphins at five are the favorites to get the Alabama QB, but there has been rumors about them possibly looking at Herbert instead. The team has three first-round draft picks they can use to trade up and secure the QB or they can gamble and see if he falls to their next pick. Going there he would be able to redshirt his rookie season to get healthy as the Dolphins has no urgency to win now after going 5-12 last season. The team with the next best odds to draft Tua is the L.A. Chargers with the sixth pick. There he has the offensive and defensive weapons necessary for a young QB to succeed as well as a year to recover with Tyrod Taylor taking helm for the upcoming season. Problem with them though is just as much as Tua gets injured, the Chargers does as well, primarily key players too. And their O-line isn’t much to brag about which would be bad for a QB with a injury history as lengthy as Tua’s.

So with those two high draft picks out the equation, there was only once sensible option for the QB to land to and that is the Las Vegas Raiders.

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Jon Gruden loves his QBs and this will probably pan out to be the best QB he’s ever had if he can get his hands on him. It is a perfect fit…the Raiders are playing in a new city and what better way to bring excitement to the team than drafting the next potential Drew Brees? And looking at the team, they have a great offensive line, a up-incoming defense and more first round picks to either go up and secure Tua or get him some offensive weapons late if he falls to them at 12.

That said, you would be a fool to pass up on Tua and there is no way I see the Dolphins letting him fall out of the top five picks. Just as the injury history is there, the tape is there as well and when healthy Tua is a star and arguably the best QB in the draft over Joe Burrow. Getting and keeping him healthy is the part teams are having problems with. And it is much harder to get a sense of these things with the pandemic restrictions. But make no mistake the Dolphins are getting this QB because they can’t afford to pass up on a potential Brees as they did before.

Catch the draft tonight at 8 pm on ESPN, NFL Network and ABC.