NBA Awards Predictions 2019

With about a week and a half of the NBA season left, most awards races have either reached its conclusion or have narrowed down to its serious contenders.

Everyone that is being considered for an award is no doubt deserving of the recognition, surely their play and hard work speaks for itself. The circle that votes on the awards doesn’t always get it right from a fans perception, but it is hard to differentiate from fixating over amazing statistics or powerful narratives. However the vote-getters see it, there’s always a controversial winner or loser.

So along with analyzing statistics, I will also take into account storylines that can impact these award races when making these predictions. I will also recognize who should be runner up as well. With little over a week left lets so if someone can distance themselves from the competition but otherwise here are my picks:

Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic is on his way to a historic rookie season. From the moment he touched the court in the NBA, he had star power written over him. It’s hard to say that the Mavericks would not have been contending for possibly an 8th seed if their season wasn’t filled with injuries to Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr. and then later trades, seemingly giving up on the season.

Doncic is averaging 21.1 points, 5.9 assists, and 7.6 rebounds. As his stats are now, he will go down as one of only two players to at least average 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists, the other being the Big O. Along with that, he has tied Magic Johnson for the most triple-doubles for a rookie in a season with eight. He is the leading catalyst to the Mavericks future along with now Kristaps Porzingis. He has clearly shown he can run a franchise at such a young age. Clearly playing overseas has benefitted him and got his body right for the NBA.

It is no doubt in my mind that he is the ROY and has been consistent all season. As an oversized ball-handler, his innate skill to break down defenders on the perimeter and shoot the ball as well he does is unlike something we have seen before. On top of that, he clearly has confidence in his ability as well as unselfish characteristics.

Runner up: Trae Young

It is clear that Young has found his footing in the NBA since the All-Star break. He had a breakout performance against the Bulls with 49 points and 16 assists and have continued to play strong to end the season. He is top five in assists and has been able to put the ball in the basket. But you can’t deny the work Doncic has been putting in all season compared to Young who often struggled early in the season.

Sixth Man of the Year: Lou Williams, LA Clippers

Lou Williams won this award last year without any doubt, earning all but four first-place votes. This year he is in the running again and is no doubt in my mind the number one candidate for the award. He is an elite scorer off the bench and has even surpassed the record for most points off the bench in NBA history.

Apologies to Spencer Dinwiddie and Domantas Sabonis who are both having great seasons off the bench for their teams, but Williams is in a class of his own. After winning last year’s award, he has up his scoring this season to 20 points per game, a league-high off the bench, and is also the leading assist getter off the bench as well. And not only does he perform well but he does it game decisive moments. Williams has become one of the best clutch players in the NBA this season.

If that wasn’t enough to convince you that he is most deserving of the award, take a look at the Clippers record. They currently sit at sixth in the tough Western Conference and have secured a playoff berth with two weeks left in the season. They did it without Tobias Harris who was traded before the deadline and have been the best team in L.A. No one thought they would be here in this position, but they are well on their way to a playoff series and maybe even winning in the first round over the Portland Trailblazers who are without star C.J. McCollum

Runner up: Domantas Sabonis

This was a tougher decision than the actual award. There are multiple players in the league that are deserving off runner up like Dinwiddie from the Brooklyn Nets who have also had a surprising season and Williams’ own teammate Montrezl Harrell. Other candidates are Dennis Schröder who has been important to Oklahoma City Thunder second unit and Derrick Rose who has had a resurgence in his career, shooting his best from three-point range. However, Rose team is not in playoff contention and has been shut down for the rest of the season. Sabonis, on the other hand, has been a key piece in the Pacers rotation, keeping them afloat, after the injury to their best player Victor Oladipo. He is averaging close to a double-double on the season and would probably win the award in this tight race if Williams wasn’t coming off the bench.

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

This was truly a hard decision because It is hard to gauge a player's defensive efficiency. Gobert is the key to the Jazz vaunted defense as he is an elite rim protector and shot blocker. His crazy length has players thinking twice about coming into the paint and has a reputation from winning the award last year.

He is third in defensive rating from Fox Sports analytics and is top five in blocked shots per game. He is also top five in rebounds per game, averaging 12.9. As the key piece in the Jazz defense, he has them at second in opponents field goal percentage and top five in opponents points per game. If those numbers weren’t enough then these advance analytics might change your opinion. Gobert is first in defensive real plus-minus and defensive player impact plus-minus.

Giannis and PG-13 make a strong case for the award as well, but Giannis isn’t in the top five in the major defensive categories like steal, blocks or rebounds and George has slipped a bit as of late along with OKC’s defense. There’s still time left in the season for these two to make their case for the award but Gobert has been a model of consistency throughout the season.

Runner up: Paul George

If it wasn’t for OKC’s slip since the All-Star break, George would probably be my leading candidate. He is the leading steal leaders and is a terror on the perimeter. He is also number one in deflections with that incredible size and length at the forward position. But it seems as the season is winding to a close, fatigue has kicked in much like those Tom Thibodeau Chicago Bulls team that played so hard during the season that they looked out of it at the end of the season. His defensive rating and efficiency have dropped along with OKC’s record. So much that they could possibly be looking at playing the Golden State Warriors in the first round.

Most Improved Player: Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

With 14 days left in the regular season, Pascal Siakam has surely locked up this award. He has improved in literally every category: points, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, etc. And it’s not just by a few numbers either. He has more than double his scoring, now averaging 17 points per game, which is about 10 points higher than his previous season. He has improved his three-point percentage from a low 22 percent to a modest and effective 35 percent and has shown to be able to run and score effectively in transition. Along with that, he has had a spike in true shooting percentage, which sits at 63 percent.

As a key member of the Raptors, he makes them that much more dangerous in the playoffs with all he can do on the court. He can play very good defense and will probably win the award for DPOY sometime in the future. His scoring is essential to his teams’ chances to contend for a title as he can score off the dribble and finish at the rim effectively.

Siakam has been a force all season and has had some very good games for the Raptors, especially when Kawhi sits for rests. Raptors have even gone to him in clutch situations showing his value. No one has shown more improvement than him in my opinion so it’s hard to see anybody deserving of the award other than him.

Co-Runner ups: D’Angelo Russell, John Collins

Both Russell and Collins have shown incredible strides in their game this season. People looked at the Nets as a lottery pick at the beginning of the season, but Russell has led them to a possible playoff berth if they can maintain their winning ways. He has also exploded for games, like his 27-point quarter versus the Sacramento Kings for a shocking comeback win. His scoring is up, and he was selected as an All-Star in just his second run with the Nets and fourth season in the NBA. He still has time to make up and chase the awards but Siakam has just been popping out of my screen all season and is exciting to watch. John Collins is having a great season but won’t get the recognition he deserves for it because of his team record. In just five more minutes per game, he has up his scoring by nearly nine points and is close to averaging a double-double for the season. But many people only know him from his appearance in the Slam Dunk Contest sadly.

Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers, L.A. Clippers

This may come as a controversial pick, but the job Doc Rivers has done I can’t deny. Literally, all the signs, stats, records, etc. says Mike Budenholzer is the winner. He has the Bucks as the number one team in the NBA as far as record, throughout the season. They have become a top team in offense, defense, and three-point percentage. All signs say this is the COTY. Coming from the Pop coaching tree he has been one of the best coaches since branching out and being the head coach of his team. You can look at the Hawks and what he did with them, who had little to none really big stars in the NBA. Now he has Giannis at his disposal.

With all that said, I personally don’t believe this is the best coaching job in the NBA. It’s not hard to think to surround Giannis with shooters and long defenders and see how well they could be. I will give credit where it is due however with how he has utilized Brock Lopez in both offensive and defensive schemes. But Doc Rivers, to me, has done the best job in the NBA outside of Nate McMillan. He has the Clippers as the sixth seed in a tough Western Conference that is only separated by a few games. He has a star in Lou Williams, but the team is filled with good role players compared to a superstar in Giannis and a better supporting cast. Out of all the candidates he has had the harder route since McMillan has the luxury of playing in the pitiful Eastern Conference.

Not to discredit anything that Budenholzer and McMillan have done but Rivers coaching job has been a pleasure to watch. He has bounced back well from not winning in the Lob City era, and have gotten the most out of his players and has devolved them well.

Runner up: Mike Budenholzer

It would be simply unfair of me to not have Budenholzer as runner up in this race. The job he has done with Bucks is incredible and he as well has been getting the best out of his players, so much that Giannis is a true MVP candidate this year. The statistics show that the Bucks is the best team, other than the Warriors, of course, so let’s give praise where its due.

MVP: James Harden, Houston Rockets

This has been a two-man race between him and Giannis, especially since the downfall of both Lakers and the Thunder, in favor of LeBron and Paul George respectively. Both men have had incredible seasons but talk about simply just balling, that’s James Harden.

As the Rockets got off to a bad start this season, with both Capela and CP3 going down to lengthy injuries, Harden went on a run unlike any other. He simply willed the Rockets back into playoff contention and to possibly a top three seed in the West. Multiple games of 50+ points this season, scoring a career high of 61 points twice in the same season, he is simply unstoppable. Not to mention his long run of 30+ point games this season. He is the league leader in scoring, averaging 36 points per game and is second in real plus-minus behind PG. Giannis has been great no doubt, but to look past what Harden has done for his team night in night out is criminal. He simply answered the call, injured or not, unlike some superstars we know.

I’m just going to say it, James Harden is the best player in the NBA.

Runner up: Giannis Antetokounmpo

The best player this season not named James Harden. His stats and team record speak for itself. The storyline along with the stats is just too much even for the Greek Freak to overcome, but we will surely see him win the award sooner rather than later as him and Harden will battle for not only the award but the new king of the NBA.